2024. 02. 24.

Election forecast from survey data

Project duration: February 2024 - February 2025

Our research group has been awarded a grant from the University Excellence Fund (Egyetemi Kiválósági Alap, EKA) for the project "A new method to improve the accuracy of estimates in empirical social research: accessibility-based post-stratification".

During the research, we use a new method to forecast elections from questionnaire data, using specific proxy questions, and then perform post-stratification based on these questions. Built on the specific questions, we divide the surveyed sample into the following groups (Figure 1).

Our main question is to what extent we obtain different results when estimating attitudes towards participation in elections by adjusting the responses not only for demographic characteristics but also for accessibility groups.

The project will run until February 2025, a particularly timely research theme in the run-up to the European Parliament and local elections.

The method builds on several international and national studies and could lead to a method that can be used by the social sciences.

Tamás Rudas, Blanka Szeitl, Emese Túry-Angyal, Bernadett Nagy and Anna Kovács are participating in the research.